Warsh Fed Chair: Berkshire Owns 10% of Bank of America

Kevin Warsh, the former Federal Reserve governor turned hedge-fund advisor, surfaced again this week as a leading candidate for the Fed chair position when Jerome Powell's term ends. The reporting cluster across Bloomberg, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal points to active White House consideration of Warsh as the conservative-leaning hawkish-bias replacement. The market implication is meaningful: Warsh has been on the record favoring a higher neutral interest rate, an accelerated balance-sheet runoff, and stricter inflation discipline than Powell's framework. For US bank net interest margins, a Warsh-led Fed means structurally higher policy rates, less aggressive rate-cutting in mild slowdowns, and steeper yield curves — all of which are positive for bank operating economics.

The 13F-level question is who is positioned for that re-rate. The answer is concentrated: Berkshire Hathaway holds Bank of America at $28.45 billion — 10.38% of Berkshire's entire $274 billion 13F portfolio. No other single investor approaches that level of concentration in any US mega-cap bank. The Warsh-Fed-chair scenario plays directly into the largest single position-weight bank bet in the institutional universe.

What a Warsh Fed chair actually means for banks

Three operational levers move for bank P&Ls under a hawkish-bias Fed:

1. Higher Fed funds rate persistence. Bank net interest margin (NIM) compresses when short rates fall and expands when short rates hold or rise. A Warsh Fed less inclined to cut at the first economic-softening signal means BAC's NIM remains structurally higher than under the Powell framework.
2. Steeper yield curve. Warsh's stated preference for accelerated balance-sheet runoff increases the supply of long-duration Treasury debt, which steepens the yield curve. Banks borrow short (deposits) and lend long (mortgages, commercial loans). A steeper curve directly expands NIM.
3. Slower regulatory burden growth. Warsh has been publicly critical of post-2008 capital-rule complexity. A Warsh-chaired Fed would likely slow further bank capital tightening, keeping return on equity higher.

Bank of America is the most rate-sensitive of the four US universal banks (JPMorgan Chase, BAC, Citigroup, Wells Fargo). Its securities portfolio carries longer duration than JPM's, which means more mark-to-market upside on a yield-curve re-rate and more book-value sensitivity to rate moves in either direction.

The 10.38% Berkshire position is the story

Berkshire Hathaway has held a substantial Bank of America position since 2011, when Warren Buffett famously injected $5 billion of capital during the post-financial-crisis recovery in exchange for preferred stock and warrants. The warrants were exercised at substantial profit, and Berkshire has held the common position through subsequent cycles.

The Q1 2026 13F shows the position at:

• $28.45 billion reported value
• 10.38% of Berkshire's reported 13F portfolio
• Reflective of approximately 944 million shares at the 2026-03-31 closing price

For context, Berkshire's other top-10 positions — Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola, Chevron — sit at portfolio weights of 1-25%. BAC at 10.38% is the second-largest single-name position in the Berkshire book. It is the largest individual-investor stake in any major US bank by absolute dollar value.

The rest of the BAC holder layer

Strip out Berkshire and the BAC holder picture sharpens:

• BlackRock: $26.30 billion, 0.46% portfolio — index sleeve, near S&P weight.
• Vanguard Capital Management: $19.97 billion, 0.50% portfolio.
• State Street: $16.42 billion, 0.55% portfolio.
• Fidelity (FMR LLC): $11.81 billion, 0.60% portfolio — slight active overweight.
• Capital World Investors: $7.03 billion, 0.96% portfolio — meaningful active overweight (BAC's S&P weight is ~0.55%).

Capital World's 0.96% portfolio weight is the cleanest non-Buffett active conviction signal — Capital Group's research analysts have positioned BAC at roughly 1.75x its S&P 500 index weight. If you exclude Berkshire (whose 10.38% weight is a structural multi-decade hold rather than a recent active call), Capital World becomes the largest discretionary active overweight in the book.

What the position concentration tells you

The Berkshire BAC stake is unusual not just for its absolute size but for its concentration. Most institutional holders run banks at portfolio weights consistent with index weights. Berkshire deliberately runs BAC at roughly 19x the S&P 500 index weight — a structural conviction call that has been in place for over a decade.

Under a Warsh-Fed scenario, Berkshire's position is leverage to:

• NIM expansion (every 25 basis points of incremental NIM is roughly $1.2 billion of pretax income for BAC, or ~$220 million attributable to Berkshire's 9% economic stake)
• Book-value appreciation from steeper-curve mark-to-market gains
• Multiple expansion if the regulatory-burden-relief narrative gains traction

The position is built for exactly the kind of policy environment Warsh would deliver.

The risks

Three counter-cases to keep in mind:

1. Warsh may not get the chair. Reporting consistently mentions Warsh alongside other candidates (Christopher Waller, Adriana Kugler, others). The decision is months out.
2. A hawkish Fed in a slowing economy compresses credit demand. NIM expansion only helps if loan books continue to grow. If a Warsh Fed presides over a slowdown that compresses commercial-lending growth, BAC's revenue line slows even as NIM widens.
3. Berkshire could trim. Berkshire has been gradually monetizing some large positions in 2024-2025 (Apple was trimmed). A BAC reduction is possible if Buffett's team views the position as overweight relative to other opportunities.

What to track

1. Warsh nomination timing. Powell's term ends in 2026; the formal nomination process typically begins 6-9 months before. Watch for White House signaling through Q3 2026.
2. Berkshire Q2 2026 13F (due August 14, 2026). Whether the BAC position holds, trims, or grows is the cleanest single-source confirmation of Buffett's view on the rate-environment trade. Track via the institutional signals feed.
3. BAC Q2 2026 earnings (mid-July). Management's NIM guidance and reserve commentary will determine whether the rate-tailwind thesis is supported by current operating data.

Bank of America's holder book has the cleanest single-position bet on hawkish Fed policy in the US institutional universe. Berkshire's 10.38% portfolio weight is leveraged to a Warsh-Fed-chair scenario in ways no other major bank holder is. For more on identifying single-investor concentration in 13F filings, see our explainer hub.

Source: SEC Form 13F-HR filings for Q1 2026 period ending 2026-03-31, accession listings at Bank of America Corp SEC filer index and Berkshire Hathaway filer index.