Semiconductor Conviction Spectrum in Q4 2025 13Fs

Oak Grove Capital turned semiconductor exposure into the portfolio itself in Q4 2025, putting roughly 50.2% of the filing into a concentrated semi sleeve led by Micron and NVIDIA. At the other end, TD Capital kept direct semiconductor exposure near 0.9%. In between sit Mariner Investment Group and NWF Advisory Services, which both express the theme but without letting it dominate the full portfolio. That spread is the real story.

TL;DR

Oak Grove: Extreme semiconductor conviction, with MU and NVDA driving the book.
Mariner: Real AI-infrastructure exposure, but inside a much broader multi-theme portfolio.
NWF: Uses tech and semiconductor exposure as one sleeve among many, not the master narrative.
TD Capital: Essentially an index allocator with only marginal direct semiconductor risk.
Key range: Direct semi sleeve from 0.9% to 50.2%.
Related reading: Oak Grove, Mariner, and NWF all show different ways to express the same macro theme.

Comparison Snapshot

Filer	Direct Semi / AI Infra Sleeve	Top-5 Concentration	Lead Expression	Read
Oak Grove	50.2%	61.3%	MU + NVDA	Specialist-level conviction
Mariner	25.4%	36.0%	LRCX and AI-infra sleeve	Diversified thematic book
NWF Advisory	7.2%	20.5%	XLK + selective semis	Hybrid advisor tilt
TD Capital	0.9%	39.1%	Incidental exposure	Index-first allocator

Q4 2025 Semiconductor / AI-Infrastructure Sleeve vs Top-5 Concentration (%)

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Oak Grove Is in a Different Category

Oak Grove is not merely overweight semiconductors. It is structurally dependent on them. With Micron at roughly 26.5% and NVIDIA at about 23.7%, the manager has converted a macro AI thesis into a two-name portfolio architecture. That is why its filing belongs in a concentration bucket, not a generic tech bucket.

Mariner is different. The firm has real AI-infrastructure and semiconductor exposure, but it also carries meaningful positions in names such as Microsoft, Alphabet, IBIT, and Cisco. It reads more like a broad thematic allocator than a pure chip specialist.

NWF and TD show the other end of the spectrum. NWF keeps technology exposure in the mix through names like XLK, VOO, and a smaller semiconductor sleeve, while TD mostly leaves the theme to the index itself.

Largest Single Semiconductor or Tech-Infrastructure Expression (%)

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Why This Spectrum Matters More Than a Simple “Bullish on AI” Label

Many investors flatten these filings into the same takeaway: everybody likes AI. That is too loose to be useful. A 50% semiconductor sleeve means earnings, valuation, and inventory cycles can dominate the quarter. A 7% sleeve means the theme can help, but it probably will not decide the whole filing. Near-zero direct exposure means the manager is content to let broad indexes absorb the theme.

That is the discipline retail investors need on 13F Insight. Do not just ask whether a fund owns AI names. Ask how much of the portfolio is actually being delegated to that thesis.

Questions Investors Search For

Which of these managers is making the boldest semiconductor bet?

Oak Grove by a wide margin. Its semiconductor sleeve is large enough to define the entire filing.

Is Mariner a semiconductor specialist?

No. It has meaningful exposure, but the rest of the portfolio is diversified across other tech, market, and macro themes.

What does NWF's lower exposure imply?

That semiconductors are an additive sleeve, not the main driver of the portfolio's risk budget.

How should I compare these filings?

Compare exposure as a percentage of the whole filing, not just whether the ticker list happens to include NVDA or MU.