State Farm's $127B 13F: Industrials and Defensives, Not Tech

State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Company filed its Q1 2026 Form 13F-HR reporting $126.86 billion in assets under management spread across long equity positions. Almost every other top-tier 13F filer at this size — Capital World, Fidelity, Wellington, MFS, Clearbridge — leads with the mega-cap tech block. State Farm does not. The top three positions are Caterpillar at 8.13% portfolio, Eli Lilly at 7.80%, and Johnson & Johnson at 6.09%. Apple shows up at position 4 (4.70%). Microsoft sits at position 9 (3.02%). Nvidia is not in the top 10. This is what a property-and-casualty insurance company's surplus-capital allocation looks like when the underwriting philosophy is conservative and the asset-liability matching prioritizes durable cash flow over growth multiple expansion.

The piece is interesting precisely because it doesn't look like the rest of the institutional consensus. P&C insurance companies hold reserves against future claims; the surplus above those reserves can be invested in equity, but the investment philosophy is constrained by capital adequacy rules and policyholder protection priorities. The result is a 13F shape that rewards quality, dividends, low-cyclicality, and balance-sheet durability — characteristics found more often in industrial blue-chips and large-cap healthcare than in AI-platform leaders. State Farm's Q1 2026 book is the clearest expression of that philosophy at scale.

The book at a glance

$126.86 billion in reported AUM, 500 positions in the top tier, WhaleScore 74.00 on our smart-money rubric — above the mega-cap consensus tier of larger active managers. The portfolio is concentrated: the top 10 absorbs $61.97 billion or 48.8% of AUM, nearly half the book in 10 stocks. This is a high-concentration mandate by any benchmark.

Position by position — what the conservative balance sheet wants

The top 10 in detail:

• Caterpillar (CAT) at $10.32B / 8.13% — Heavy machinery, mining equipment, energy infrastructure. CAT pays a 1.7% dividend yield, runs investment-grade credit, and benefits directly from US infrastructure-and-mining capex cycles. The S&P 500 weight for CAT is roughly 0.4%, so State Farm is running roughly a 20x index overweight.
• Eli Lilly (LLY) at $9.90B / 7.80% — Diabetes/obesity drug platform franchise. LLY's market-cap dominance among pharma names plus the multi-year GLP-1 franchise gives State Farm a high-cash-flow-visibility position. Index weight ~1.5%, so a 5x overweight.
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) at $7.72B / 6.09% — Diversified healthcare, dividend-aristocrat, A+ credit rating. Classic P&C-style defensive position. Index weight ~1.0%, so a 6x overweight.
• Apple (AAPL) at $5.96B / 4.70% — Index weight ~6.1%; State Farm is meaningfully underweight Apple. The exception that proves the rule — Apple's services revenue stream gives it the kind of recurring-cash-flow profile a P&C balance sheet wants, but the book is constrained from running it at index weight because of single-name concentration limits at the larger position weights above.
• Illinois Tool Works (ITW) at $5.47B / 4.31% — Diversified industrial. ITW has paid increasing dividends for over 50 years. Index weight ~0.2%, so roughly a 21x overweight. This is one of the most distinctive picks in the book — ITW is rarely a top-10 holding for any major institutional manager.
• Exxon Mobil (XOM) at $5.18B / 4.08% — Energy super-major. Index weight ~1.05%, so roughly a 4x overweight. P&C balance sheets historically run overweight to energy for both dividend yield and inflation hedge.
• Walmart (WMT) at $4.85B / 3.82% — Defensive consumer staples. Index weight ~0.9%, so a 4x overweight.
• Nucor (NUE) at $4.09B / 3.23% — US steel producer. Index weight ~0.05%, so roughly a 60x overweight — the most concentrated single-name overweight in the entire book relative to passive benchmarks. NUE is a cyclical pick, but the dividend coverage and balance-sheet quality make it a fit for the State Farm philosophy.
• Microsoft (MSFT) at $3.84B / 3.02% — Index weight ~7.2%, so State Farm is running roughly a 60% underweight on the largest US software franchise.
• ASML Holding (CUSIP N07059210) at $3.64B / 2.87% — Photolithography monopoly. Foreign ADR with no S&P 500 index weight, so pure active call. ASML's lithography systems serve the long-tail capex cycle that powers semiconductor manufacturing — durable equipment business with long-dated visibility, characteristics State Farm prioritizes.

The top 10 vs the rest

48.8% concentration in the top 10 versus 51.2% across the remaining 490 positions. The remaining tail distributes at average position sizes around $130 million each. This is unusual concentration for a $127 billion book — typical diversified active managers run top-10 concentrations of 20-25%. State Farm runs nearly twice that, which reflects both the firm's investment philosophy and the regulatory framework around insurance-balance-sheet equity allocation.

What's deliberately missing from the top 10

Three observations about absent names:

1. Nvidia. Despite NVDA being the largest single S&P 500 weight in Q1 2026, it is not in State Farm's top 10. The position likely exists in the long tail but at a portfolio weight well under any index match. P&C balance sheets are structurally suspicious of high-multiple growth names where the cash flow visibility is shorter than the investment horizon.
2. Mega-cap platform tech beyond Apple and Microsoft. Amazon, Alphabet, Meta — all absent from the top 10. The book holds them in the tail, but underweights them severely relative to passive benchmarks.
3. Financials beyond passive holdings. JPMorgan Chase is at index weight in the tail. Banks, broker-dealers, and asset managers are absent from the top 10 because P&C insurers structurally underweight financials (the correlation with their own balance-sheet stress is too high).

AUM trajectory

State Farm Mutual's reported 13F AUM has been stable through the 2024-2026 cycle, consistent with the firm's structural role as a long-horizon insurance balance sheet. The position count has remained near 500 throughout. The firm rebalances at the margin rather than rotating the book — this is exactly the behavior the conservative-allocation philosophy predicts.

What this 13F tells institutional readers

State Farm Mutual is one of the cleanest expressions in the US 13F universe of a non-consensus active-equity book. Three implications:

1. The industrial overweight is structural. CAT, ITW, NUE, plus XOM in the energy slot — these positions reflect a balance-sheet allocation philosophy that prioritizes dividend yield, A-grade credit, and cyclical inflation hedging. The State Farm book is not waiting for an industrial-capex cycle; it is positioned for one continuously.
2. Healthcare is the conservative growth engine. LLY and JNJ at the top of the book replace what most managers fill with mega-cap tech. The cash-flow visibility on these names is structurally longer than for AI-platform leaders.
3. The book is structurally underweight AI-platform leadership. NVDA is absent from the top 10, MSFT is at 3.02% vs 7.2% index, AMZN/GOOGL/META are absent. This is a deliberate philosophical choice, not an accident.

What to track

1. State Farm's Q2 2026 13F (due August 14, 2026). Watch whether CAT and NUE positions hold through any industrial-data softening; trims would signal the book is fading the late-cycle industrial trade.
2. Healthcare positioning. LLY at 7.80% portfolio is highly concentrated — a 2-3% trim would signal the GLP-1 thesis is approaching peak conviction in the book.
3. Whether NVDA enters the top 10. An AI-platform leader appearing at the top of State Farm's book would be a meaningful philosophical shift; the absence is consistent through multiple recent quarters.

Read the full holdings table on the State Farm Mutual profile page. Compare against peer-style insurance-balance-sheet 13Fs through the institutional signals feed. For a primer on reading non-consensus active 13Fs, see our explainer hub.

Source: SEC Form 13F-HR filed by State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co (CIK 0000315032) for the period ending 2026-03-31; available via EDGAR — State Farm filer index.