Bridgewater Associates Q4 2025 13F Deep Dive: The $4.8 Billion SPY Bet and Dalio's Portfolio Transformation

Bridgewater Associates filed its Q4 2024 13F on February 13, 2025, revealing a radically reshaped $21.8 billion portfolio. The headline: Bridgewater bought $4.3 billion worth of SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in a single quarter — a 10x increase that made one ETF position larger than the next 20 holdings combined. This isn't a tweak. It's a strategic pivot.

Portfolio Overview: $21.8 Billion, Fewer Holdings, More Concentrated

Bridgewater's 13F portfolio surged 23.5% from $17.7 billion (Q3) to $21.8 billion (Q4), adding $4.15 billion in a single quarter. But holdings fell from 773 to 691, with 168 positions exited and 86 new ones initiated — a massive rotation affecting nearly a third of the portfolio.

The AUM trajectory shows Bridgewater in growth mode after a flat 2023. From $16.2 billion at mid-2023, the portfolio has grown 35% over six quarters. But this growth story has a twist: virtually all of the Q4 increase came from buying ETFs, not from individual stock appreciation.

The SPY Mega-Bet: 10x in One Quarter

The most dramatic move in this filing — and arguably one of the largest single-position increases by any major fund this quarter — is SPY. Bridgewater increased its SPY position from 837,000 shares ($480 million) to 8.23 million shares ($4.82 billion). That's a 883.6% increase in shares and a $4.34 billion cash deployment.

To put this in context: SPY went from 2.7% of the portfolio to 22.1% — becoming by far the largest holding, nearly 4x larger than the #2 position (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF at $1.2 billion). Before Q4 2024, SPY had been a modest 2-3% allocation for years, gradually declining from $525 million in late 2022 to $374 million by early 2024. Then, in a single quarter, it exploded to $4.8 billion.

What drove this? Bridgewater's macro view appears to have shifted aggressively bullish on US equities. Rather than building individual stock positions (which takes time and creates market impact), they deployed capital through the most liquid equity instrument on earth — SPY trades over $30 billion daily. This enabled rapid, low-impact execution of a massive directional bet.

The ETF Pivot: From 20% to 35%

SPY is the headline, but the broader ETF story is equally significant. Bridgewater's total ETF allocation rose from $3.6 billion (20% of portfolio) to $7.6 billion (35%). The breakdown:

• SPY: $4.82B (22.1%) — up from $480M
• iShares Core S&P 500 (IVV): $1.20B (5.5%) — slight decrease
• iShares Core MSCI EM (IEMG): $922M (4.2%) — modest trim
• iShares MSCI South Korea (EWY): $161M (0.7%) — increased
• iShares MBS ETF: $132M (0.6%)
• iShares iBoxx Investment Grade (LQD): $106M (0.5%)
• Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets (VWO): $98M (0.4%) — trimmed

Meanwhile, the individual stock portfolio stayed essentially flat at $14.3 billion (vs $14.1 billion in Q3). The entire $4.15 billion AUM increase came from adding ETFs. This represents a fundamental shift in how Bridgewater is expressing market views — through broad market instruments rather than stock-by-stock construction.

Top 10 Individual Stock Holdings

Stripping out ETFs, Bridgewater's largest individual positions reveal a tech-heavy core:

The concentration is notably low. Alphabet leads at just 3.1% — compared to Berkshire's 28% in Apple. Bridgewater's top 10 stocks combined equal only 12.8% of the portfolio. This is a systematic, diversified fund, not a conviction-weighted one. No single stock position exceeds $700 million.

Biggest Adds: PayPal, Robinhood, and the Fintech Surge

Beyond SPY, Bridgewater made several aggressive individual stock bets:

AppLovin (+86% shares): $160M

AppLovin nearly doubled from $35M to $160M as Bridgewater added 227,000 shares. The mobile ad-tech company was one of 2024's best performers, and Bridgewater was buying into the momentum.

PayPal (+93% shares): $201M

PayPal surged from $95M to $201M — a $106 million increase. Bridgewater added 1.14 million shares, more than doubling the position. This follows a multi-quarter build: PayPal was just $89M at year-end 2023 and has been steadily accumulated through 2024.

Robinhood (+646% shares): $92M

Robinhood Markets saw the most dramatic percentage increase among meaningful positions: from $7.8M (331K shares) to $92M (2.47M shares). This 7x increase signals conviction in the retail trading platform's turnaround story.

AT&T (+402% shares): $148M

AT&T jumped from $28M to $148M as Bridgewater added 5.19 million shares. The telecom giant's improving free cash flow and dividend stability attracted a massive increase.

Vistra (+59% shares): $245M

Vistra Corp, a power generation company benefiting from the AI data center boom, grew from $132M to $245M. Bridgewater added 657,000 shares to capitalize on the energy-AI convergence theme.

Biggest Cuts: Consumer Staples Retreat

While loading up on tech, fintech, and market ETFs, Bridgewater aggressively cut consumer defensive and traditional blue-chip names:

• Procter & Gamble: Cut 73%, from $277M to $74M (-1.16M shares)
• Johnson & Johnson: Cut 63%, from $238M to $78M (-932K shares)
• Walmart: Cut 73%, from $230M to $70M (-2.06M shares)
• Coca-Cola: Cut 69%, from $160M to $44M (-1.53M shares)
• PepsiCo: Cut 67%, from $129M to $38M (-510K shares)
• Costco: Cut 52%, from $150M to $74M (-89K shares)

These are not modest trims — they're aggressive de-allocations from the consumer defensive sector. Combined, Bridgewater pulled over $500 million from staples names in a single quarter. The message: Bridgewater is rotating out of safety trades and into growth and market beta.

Near-Exits and Liquidations

Several positions were reduced to near-zero:

• Chevron: -99% (from $99M to $1M — effectively exited)
• Palantir: -97.6% (from $19.5M to $950K)
• Applied Materials: -97.2% (from $117M to $2.7M)
• American Express: -93.3% (from $15.3M to $1.1M)

The Chevron exit is particularly notable — Bridgewater went from nearly $100 million in Chevron to virtually nothing, while simultaneously adding to utility plays like Vistra and Constellation Energy. This suggests a specific view on the energy sector: away from traditional oil & gas, toward power generation benefiting from electrification and AI demand.

New Positions: Tesla, ServiceNow, and Moderna

Among 86 new positions initiated in Q4:

• Tesla: $62M (154K shares) — a fresh bet on the EV maker
• ServiceNow: $60M (56K shares) — enterprise software play
• Moderna: $25M (606K shares) — biotech at depressed valuations
• Oracle: $15M (88K shares) — database/cloud infrastructure
• Eaton Corp: $14M (41K shares) — industrial power management

The Tesla initiation is noteworthy given Bridgewater's systematic approach. At $62 million, it's a meaningful but measured entry — large enough to signal conviction but small enough to add to on dips.

Notable Exits

Among the 168 positions fully liquidated:

• Micron Technology: Exited $102M position entirely
• Super Micro Computer: Exited $67M — sold before the accounting troubles deepened
• Goldman Sachs: Exited $63M position
• Electronic Arts: Exited $32M
• Spotify: Exited $21M
• Veeva Systems: Exited $21M

The Super Micro exit in Q4 proved prescient — SMCI has faced ongoing scrutiny over financial reporting issues. Goldman Sachs is an unusual exit given Bridgewater's typical appetite for financial names.

Sector Allocation: ETFs Dominate

When including ETFs as their own category, they now represent the single largest allocation at 34.7% — up from roughly 20% in Q3. Technology follows at 20.5% with 132 individual positions, making it the deepest sector by position count. Financial Services (7.7%), Communication Services (6.6%), and Healthcare (6.5%) form the next tier.

The dramatic change is what's NOT there anymore: Consumer Defensive fell from a top-3 sector to just 4.7% after the PG/JNJ/WMT/KO cuts. Energy collapsed to 2.0% after the Chevron near-exit. These were significant allocations just one quarter ago.

What This Means: Bridgewater's Macro View

Bridgewater is the world's largest hedge fund by AUM (their total fund is ~$150 billion; the 13F captures only the US-listed equity portion). Reading their 13F requires understanding that it's one slice of a global, multi-asset portfolio.

The Q4 moves paint a clear picture:

1. Bullish on US equities broadly — the SPY mega-buy is a directional market bet, not stock-picking
2. Risk-on rotation — cutting consumer staples (defensive) and adding tech, fintech, and growth names
3. Energy pivot to electrification — exiting oil (CVX) while building power generation (VST, CEG)
4. Portfolio simplification via ETFs — replacing many small individual positions with broad market exposure

This is consistent with a macro fund that sees continued US economic strength and is willing to take concentrated directional risk through the most efficient instruments available. Whether Ray Dalio's successors — Greg Jensen, Nir Bar Dea, and Mark Bertolini — maintain this posture through 2025 will be revealed in subsequent filings.

Key Takeaways

• SPY 10x = the story — From $480M to $4.8B, SPY is now 22% of the portfolio. This is one of the largest single-ETF bets by any institutional filer this quarter.
• ETF pivot — Total ETF allocation doubled from 20% to 35%. Individual stock portfolio stayed flat at $14.3B.
• Consumer staples gutted — PG, JNJ, WMT, KO, PEP all cut 60-73%. Over $500M pulled from defensive names.
• 168 exits, 86 new — Nearly a third of positions turned over. This is active management at scale.
• Fintech surge — PayPal doubled, Robinhood 7x, eBay 5x. Bridgewater is betting on digital finance.
• Energy: oil out, power in — Chevron -99%, while Vistra +59% and Constellation Energy held. Electrification over fossil fuels.

Data sourced from SEC EDGAR 13F-HR filing for Bridgewater Associates, LP (CIK: 0001350694), quarter ending December 31, 2024. Filed February 13, 2025. All values reflect positions as of the report date; actual current holdings may differ due to the 45-day disclosure lag. Bridgewater's 13F captures only US-listed equity holdings — the firm's total AUM across all strategies is approximately $150 billion.