Carlyle’s 13F Reveals a $9B Medline Stake and a $4.4B StandardAero Hold: Inside the PE Giant’s 99%-Concentrated Two-Stock Portfolio

Most 13F filings tell you how a hedge fund is trading. Carlyle Group's Q4 2025 filing tells you something different entirely: how a $400 billion private equity firm is exiting.

The numbers are stark. Of the $13.57 billion reported in Carlyle's latest 13F, 99% sits in exactly two stocks — Medline (MDLN) at $9.04 billion and StandardAero (SARO) at $4.38 billion. Both companies IPO'd within the last 14 months. Both are former Carlyle buyout targets transitioning from private to public ownership. The remaining 18 positions total just $148 million — barely a rounding error.

This isn't a portfolio. It's a PE exit strategy caught mid-execution.

TL;DR

• Q4 2025 AUM: $13.57B — up 213% from $4.34B in Q3, driven almost entirely by Medline's December 2025 IPO.
• 99% concentration in two stocks: Medline ($9.04B, 66.7%) + StandardAero ($4.38B, 32.3%).
• Medline IPO was the biggest US IPO of 2025 — raised $6.26B on Dec 17, priced at $29, closed at $41 (+41% day one).
• Carlyle acquired Medline in 2021 alongside Blackstone and Hellman & Friedman for $34 billion — one of the largest leveraged buyouts in history.
• StandardAero IPO'd in October 2024 at $24/share, raising $1.44B. Carlyle remains the majority owner and hasn't sold.
• The remaining 18 positions total $148M — pharma bets (Phathom Pharma, $58M), autonomous vehicles (Pony AI, $34M), and various small-cap remnants.
• AUM hit an all-time low of $0.95B in Q3 2024 before StandardAero's IPO reversed the decline.
• This is not a conviction portfolio — it's a snapshot of PE-to-public transitions that will unwind over the next 12-24 months as lock-up periods expire.
• Watch for lock-up expirations on both MDLN and SARO — that's when Carlyle will begin reducing its stakes.

The $9 Billion Medline Position

Medline Industries is not a household name, but it touches nearly every hospital in America. The company manufactures and distributes over 335,000 medical products — surgical gloves, gowns, scalpels, wheelchairs, wound care supplies — to healthcare systems, clinics, and government agencies. Founded in 1966 by the Mills family in Northfield, Illinois, Medline grew into the largest privately held medical supply company in the US.

In 2021, Carlyle teamed up with Blackstone and Hellman & Friedman to acquire Medline for approximately $34 billion, including debt — making it one of the largest leveraged buyouts ever. The thesis was straightforward: healthcare supplies are recession-resistant, Medline had a dominant distribution network, and there was significant room for operational improvement and margin expansion.

Four years later, the exit began. On December 17, 2025, Medline went public in what became the biggest US IPO of the year. The offering was upsized from its initial plan, ultimately raising $6.26 billion. Shares priced at $29 and opened trading at $35 before closing the day at $41 — a 41% pop that gave the company a market capitalization of roughly $54 billion.

The financials justify the valuation. In the nine months preceding the IPO, Medline reported revenue of $20.6 billion and net income of $977 million. That's the kind of scale and profitability that makes institutional investors line up.

Carlyle's $9.04 billion stake — 215.3 million shares at a 66.7% portfolio weight — represents the PE consortium's retained position post-IPO. They didn't sell at the IPO; the shares listed are what Carlyle still holds. This is standard practice: PE firms rarely liquidate their entire position at the IPO. Instead, they retain a majority stake and gradually sell down over subsequent quarters as lock-up restrictions expire.

The $4.4 Billion StandardAero Hold

StandardAero tells a parallel story, just 14 months ahead in the PE exit timeline. This company specializes in aerospace engine maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) — the critical aftermarket services that keep commercial and military aircraft flying. It's a business with high barriers to entry, long-term service contracts, and predictable revenue.

Carlyle took StandardAero public in October 2024, pricing the IPO at $24 per share and raising $1.44 billion. The stock has appreciated modestly since then, trading around $28.70 by year-end 2025. Carlyle's 152.7 million shares are worth $4.38 billion, representing 32.3% of the 13F portfolio.

What's notable is that Carlyle hasn't trimmed its StandardAero position. In Q3 2025, the stock represented 96.1% of Carlyle's entire 13F — a $4.17 billion position in a $4.34 billion portfolio. The arrival of Medline in Q4 diluted StandardAero's share to 32.3%, but the actual position size grew by $213 million quarter-over-quarter as the stock appreciated.

This patience is typical. PE sponsors who retain majority ownership post-IPO tend to hold through several quarters, selling in blocks through secondary offerings or structured sales rather than dumping shares on the open market.

Why Carlyle's 13F Is Different From Every Other Filing

When retail investors analyze a 13F from Berkshire Hathaway, Citadel, or Bridgewater, they're reading the tea leaves of active investment managers making deliberate allocation decisions. "Buffett bought more Apple" or "Citadel initiated a position in Nvidia" — these are signals of conviction.

Carlyle's 13F requires a completely different lens. This is not stock picking. These positions exist because Carlyle bought companies via leveraged buyouts, grew them over several years, took them public, and is now legally required to report the shares it still owns. The 13F is a byproduct of the PE lifecycle, not an investment thesis.

That's why 99% concentration in two names isn't a red flag — it's expected. A PE firm's public equity holdings at any given time are just the companies that happen to be in the post-IPO, pre-exit window. The remaining 1% ($148M across 18 positions) is mostly legacy tail from older fund vehicles: small pharma bets, SPAC remnants, and positions too small to move the needle.

The PE-to-Public Pipeline

Carlyle's AUM history chart tells the full PE lifecycle story. From mid-2022 to late 2024, 13F assets declined steadily from $5.8 billion to a trough of just $950 million. This wasn't a fund blowing up — it was Carlyle's older portfolio companies being sold, merged, or taken private by other buyers, removing them from the 13F.

Then came the IPO cycle:

• Q4 2024: StandardAero IPOs → AUM jumps from $0.95B to $4.15B (+337%)
• Q4 2025: Medline IPOs → AUM jumps from $4.34B to $13.57B (+213%)

Each IPO creates a step-function increase in reported 13F assets, because shares that were previously private (and not reportable) suddenly become public equity that must be disclosed. The 13F doesn't reflect new purchases — it reflects the reclassification of existing PE ownership into publicly traded shares.

This pattern — decline, IPO pop, gradual sell-down, decline — is the rhythmic heartbeat of every large PE firm's 13F. Carlyle happens to have two of its largest portfolio companies in the post-IPO window simultaneously, which is why the current 13F looks so dramatic.

What To Watch: Lock-Up Expirations and Exit Timing

For investors tracking Medline or StandardAero, the most important dates aren't earnings reports — they're lock-up expirations. IPO lock-up periods typically last 90-180 days, during which insiders and PE sponsors are restricted from selling shares.

Key considerations:

• Medline lock-up: With the IPO on December 17, 2025, the standard 180-day lock-up would expire around mid-June 2026. That's when Carlyle, Blackstone, and H&F could begin secondary offerings.
• StandardAero lock-up: Having IPO'd in October 2024, StandardAero's initial lock-up has already expired. Carlyle can sell at any time but has chosen not to — likely waiting for a higher price or strategic timing.
• Selling mechanics: PE firms don't dump shares on the open market. They typically use secondary offerings (announced block sales) or structured programs to avoid crashing the stock price.
• Timeline: Full exit from both positions could take 12-24 months, depending on market conditions and stock performance.

The next 2-3 quarterly 13F filings will be the ones to watch. Any decline in share count for either MDLN or SARO signals that Carlyle has begun its exit.

What Analysts Might Misread

The biggest analytical mistake with Carlyle's 13F would be treating it like a hedge fund filing. Common misreadings include:

"Carlyle is extremely bullish on healthcare and aerospace." Not exactly. Carlyle bought Medline in 2021 and StandardAero years before that. These were private equity investment decisions made long before these companies were public. The 13F reflects past conviction, not current market views.

"99% concentration is reckless." By hedge fund standards, yes. By PE standards, it's completely normal. A PE firm's public equity holdings are just the companies that have recently IPO'd. There's no portfolio diversification mandate because these aren't trading positions.

"Carlyle hasn't sold StandardAero — they must love it." Maybe. But PE firms also hold post-IPO for tax optimization, lock-up compliance, or simply because the position is too large to unwind quickly. Patience doesn't always equal conviction.

"The tiny positions show what Carlyle really likes." The 18 positions totaling $148 million are mostly legacy PE fund tails — small stakes left over from older deals, SPAC participations, or co-investments that haven't been fully liquidated. They're administrative remnants, not signals.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does Carlyle file a 13F if they're a PE firm?

Any institutional investment manager with $100 million or more in 13F-reportable securities must file quarterly with the SEC. When Carlyle's buyout companies go public via IPO, the shares they retain become 13F-reportable. The 13F captures only their public equity — not private fund holdings, credit investments, or real assets.

Did Carlyle buy $9 billion in Medline stock?

No. Carlyle acquired Medline as a private company in 2021 (alongside Blackstone and Hellman & Friedman) for $34 billion. When Medline IPO'd in December 2025, the shares Carlyle already owned became publicly traded. The $9 billion represents the market value of their retained stake, not a new purchase.

Will Carlyle sell its Medline and StandardAero positions?

Almost certainly, but gradually. PE firms typically sell down post-IPO positions over 12-24 months through secondary offerings and structured block sales. Watch for declining share counts in future 13F filings as the primary indicator of exit activity.

Why is the rest of the portfolio so small?

The 18 positions totaling $148 million are residual holdings from older fund vehicles — pharma bets like Phathom Pharma ($58M), autonomous vehicle plays like Pony AI ($34M), and small-cap remnants. They represent the long tail of PE liquidation, not active investment decisions.

How does Carlyle's 13F compare to Blackstone's or KKR's?

All large PE firms show similar patterns: extreme concentration in recently-IPO'd portfolio companies, step-function AUM changes around IPO dates, and gradual decline as positions are sold down. Blackstone would also show a large Medline stake, since they co-invested in the 2021 LBO.

Should I follow Carlyle's 13F for stock ideas?

Not in the traditional sense. Unlike hedge fund 13Fs that reveal active trading strategies, Carlyle's filing shows PE exit mechanics. The more useful signal is when Carlyle starts selling — large insider sales post-lock-up can create short-term supply pressure on the stock price, which may present buying opportunities for long-term investors who believe in the fundamentals.