Soros Bought $578M in Energy Puts While Einhorn Loaded Gold Bars: Inside the Great Commodity Divergence of Q4 2025

Gold gained 60% in 2025 and set 53 all-time highs. Oil fell 15% and is headed lower. These two lines crossed in opposite directions — and seven of the world’s most-watched investors chose different sides. Soros Fund Management bought $578M in energy sector puts (bearish) while simultaneously building a gold mining position. Carl Icahn held $1.8B in a single refiner. David Einhorn bet on physical gold bars and call options. This is the widest commodity positioning gap among whale funds we have tracked since the 2020 oil crash.

TL;DR

• Gold 2025: +60% YoY, Q4 average $4,135/oz, 53 all-time highs. Total demand exceeded 5,000 tons for the first time.
• Oil 2025: Brent crude averaged ~$67/bbl (−15.5% YoY), projected to fall further to $62 in 2026.
• Soros ($578M energy PUTS): Bought puts on XOP ($415M) and XLE ($163M) — the largest energy sector short among whale funds. Also long New Gold (NGD) at $84M.
• Icahn (76% energy): $1.8B in CVR Energy (refining) + $427M CVR Partners + $71M SandRidge. The most concentrated energy portfolio of any whale fund.
• Berkshire ($31.7B energy): CVX at $19.8B (7.2%) and OXY at $10.9B (4.0%). Largest absolute energy exposure.
• Einhorn (gold bars + calls): Physical gold and options drove 14.5% macro alpha in 2025. Also holds Core Natural Resources ($149M, 7.7%).
• Bridgewater (NEM $231M): Newmont is the top gold miner position among mega-allocators. Spread across multiple gold miners in the long tail.
• Elliott (~50% energy/commodities): Activist positions in Phillips 66, Suncor, gold miners (GDX, Triple Flag). The activist energy playbook.
• Druckenmiller (industrial metals): Alcoa ($73M), Cleveland-Cliffs ($23M), Southern Copper ($17M). Metals exposure via producers, not miners.

The Macro Backdrop: The Widest Gold-Oil Spread in a Decade

The commodity market in 2025 delivered the sharpest gold-vs-oil divergence in at least ten years. Gold surged 60%, driven by three mutually reinforcing forces:

• Central bank buying: 863 tons of sovereign purchases, the third consecutive year above 800 tons.
• ETF inflows: US gold ETFs attracted 437 tons of demand — a 140% YoY increase.
• Geopolitical hedging: Ongoing US-China tensions, Middle East instability, and US deficit concerns pushed institutional demand for hard assets.

Meanwhile, oil faced structural headwinds: non-OPEC supply growth (especially from the US, Brazil, and Guyana), OPEC+ production cut unwinding, slowing Chinese demand, and accelerating EV adoption. The IMF projects Brent crude averaging $62.4 in 2026 — a further decline from 2025’s already-depressed levels.

This macro backdrop forced every commodity-exposed fund to make a choice: gold, oil, both, or neither. The 13F filings reveal exactly how they chose.

The Gold Camp

Einhorn: Gold Bars, Options, and 14.5% Alpha

David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital generated 9% returns in 2025, with the macro portfolio alone producing 14.5% alpha — almost entirely from gold. Einhorn holds physical gold bars and call options (neither of which appear in 13F filings, which only track equities). In his Q1 2025 investor letter, he described gold as a hedge against “expected inflation driven by government policies” and shifted his macro stance from cautious to explicitly bearish.

On the equity side, Greenlight’s Q4 2025 13F shows Core Natural Resources (CNR) at $149M (7.7%) — a coal mining company that benefits from the same commodity supercycle thesis. The fund also held Fluor Corp (FLR) at $232M (9.1%), an energy infrastructure engineering firm that profits regardless of whether the commodity is oil, gas, LNG, or renewable energy.

Einhorn’s positioning is the purest gold-over-oil trade among major allocators. He is simultaneously long gold (physical + options) and neutral-to-positive on energy infrastructure (Fluor), while avoiding direct oil exposure entirely.

Bridgewater: Newmont at $231M and a Gold Mining Cluster

Bridgewater Associates ($27.4B AUM, 1,040 holdings) holds Newmont (NEM) at $231M (0.84%) — the largest single gold miner position among mega-fund allocators. Newmont rallied 110%+ YTD in 2025 as record gold prices translated directly into margin expansion.

Bridgewater’s portfolio is so diversified (1,040 positions) that the gold mining cluster extends into the long tail: Barrick Gold, AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields, Harmony Gold Mining, and Agnico Eagle Mines all appear in the filing. Combined, these gold miners likely represent $400M–$600M of the portfolio. Ray Dalio’s All Weather framework has always included commodities as a structural allocation — but in Q4 2025, the gold sleeve appears to have expanded at the expense of energy.

Soros: Short Energy, Long Gold Miners

The most sophisticated commodity trade in Q4 2025 belongs to Soros Fund Management. The fund holds $578M in energy sector PUT options:

• XOP puts: $415M (4.8%) — bearish on oil & gas exploration/production companies.
• XLE puts: $163M (1.9%) — bearish on the broader energy sector (includes integrated majors like XOM and CVX).

Simultaneously, Soros holds New Gold (NGD) at $84M (1.0%) — a mid-cap gold miner operating in Canada and Mexico. This is a textbook macro divergence trade: short energy, long gold, with the thesis that the gold-oil spread continues to widen.

The XOP and XLE puts also function as portfolio hedges. Soros’s top holdings are tech-heavy (Amazon $614M, Alphabet $200M, NVIDIA $124M), and energy puts provide correlation diversification against a broader market selloff driven by commodity-linked inflation.

The Oil Camp

Icahn: 76% Energy Concentration

Carl Icahn ($8.4B portfolio) is the most energy-concentrated major investor in the 13F universe. His portfolio is dominated by energy and energy-adjacent names:

• Icahn Enterprises (IEP): $4.1B (49.1%) — his holding company with significant energy subsidiary exposure.
• CVR Energy (CVI): $1.8B (21.2%) — petroleum refining and marketing. Icahn owns 70M+ shares of this refiner.
• CVR Partners (UAN): $427M (5.1%) — nitrogen fertilizer production, energy-input dependent.
• SandRidge Energy (SD): $71M (0.8%) — oil and gas exploration.

Combined direct energy exposure: ~$2.3B (27%) excluding IEP, or ~$6.4B (76%) including IEP. This is an activist’s concentrated portfolio, not a diversified allocation. Icahn is betting that US refining margins remain healthy even as crude prices decline — a “crack spread” thesis where refiner profits can be maintained despite lower oil prices.

Berkshire: $31.7B in CVX + OXY

Berkshire Hathaway ($274B portfolio) holds the largest absolute dollar energy position of any 13F filer:

• Chevron (CVX): $19.8B (7.2%) — integrated oil major, top-5 position.
• Occidental Petroleum (OXY): $10.9B (4.0%) — the long-running Buffett position with 265M shares.
• Nucor (NUE): $1.0B (0.4%) — steel, commodity-adjacent.

At $31.7B combined, Berkshire’s energy allocation (~11.6%) is the second-largest absolute commodity bet in institutional holdings. Unlike Icahn, Buffett is not betting on refining margins — he is holding long-duration positions in integrated majors that generate cash flow across commodity cycles. The OXY position is also a carbon capture thesis (Occidental’s 1PointFive subsidiary).

Elliott: The Activist Energy and Gold Playbook

As we detailed in our Elliott Q4 2025 deep dive, Elliott Investment Management (~$22.6B) deployed approximately 50% of its portfolio into energy and commodity-linked positions. Key names include Phillips 66 (PSX), Suncor Energy (SU), and gold exposure through GDX and Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM). Elliott’s approach is distinct: activist campaigns targeting operational improvements at energy companies, not passive commodity bets.

The Industrial Metals Play

Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office ($4.5B) took a different path entirely. As we covered in our Duquesne Q4 2025 analysis, Druckenmiller built exposure to industrial metals producers rather than gold or oil:

• Alcoa (AA): $73M (1.6%) — aluminum.
• Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF): $23M (0.5%) — steel.
• Southern Copper (SCCO): $17M (0.4%) — copper.

This is a reshoring and electrification thesis, not a commodity supercycle bet. Aluminum, steel, and copper are inputs to physical infrastructure — data centers, EV charging networks, manufacturing reshoring. Druckenmiller is playing the same macro theme as his Brazil EWZ position: a world where physical assets and emerging market producers benefit from the AI infrastructure buildout.

The Divergence Scorecard

Fund	AUM	Gold Exposure	Oil/Energy Exposure	Net Stance
Einhorn / Greenlight	$1.9B	Gold bars + calls (off-13F), CNR $149M	None direct	Strong gold bull
Soros	$8.6B	NGD $84M (gold miner)	XOP puts $415M, XLE puts $163M	Short energy, long gold
Bridgewater	$27.4B	NEM $231M + gold miner cluster	Minimal direct	Gold overweight
Icahn	$8.4B	None	CVI $1.8B, UAN $427M, SD $71M	Concentrated oil/refining
Berkshire	$274B	None	CVX $19.8B, OXY $10.9B	Long-duration energy
Elliott	$22.6B	GDX + TFPM (~$1B+)	PSX, SU (~$5B+)	Activist both sides
Druckenmiller	$4.5B	None	AA $73M, CLF $23M, SCCO $17M	Industrial metals

What Analysts Might Misread

1. “Soros is long energy because he holds XOP.” No. The XOP and XLE positions are put options — these are bearish bets. Soros is short $578M of energy, not long. Always check the optionType field in 13F data.
2. “Berkshire is reducing energy.” Berkshire still holds $31.7B across CVX and OXY. The portfolio weight has compressed because other positions (AAPL, AXP, BAC) appreciated faster, not because Buffett is selling energy.
3. “Einhorn’s gold bet is small.” The 13F only shows equity positions. Einhorn’s physical gold bars and call options — which generated 14.5% alpha in 2025 — are invisible in 13F data. The equity positions (CNR, FLR) are the tip of the iceberg.

Q&A

Which whale funds are bullish on gold in Q4 2025?

Einhorn (Greenlight Capital) is the strongest gold bull, holding physical gold bars and call options plus Core Natural Resources at $149M. Bridgewater holds Newmont (NEM) at $231M plus a cluster of gold miners. Soros holds New Gold (NGD) at $84M while simultaneously shorting energy with puts.

Is Soros bullish or bearish on energy?

Bearish. Soros holds $578M in put options on energy ETFs: XOP puts ($415M) and XLE puts ($163M). These are bets that energy stocks will decline. This is the largest energy sector short among major 13F filers.

How much energy does Berkshire Hathaway hold?

Berkshire holds $31.7B in energy: Chevron (CVX) at $19.8B (7.2%) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) at $10.9B (4.0%). This is the largest absolute energy position among all 13F filers.

What is Carl Icahn’s biggest energy position?

CVR Energy (CVI) at $1.8B (21.2% of his portfolio). Icahn owns over 70 million shares of the petroleum refiner. Combined with CVR Partners and SandRidge Energy, his direct energy exposure is approximately $2.3B.

How did gold perform versus oil in 2025?

Gold surged approximately 60% in 2025, averaging $4,135/oz in Q4 and setting 53 all-time price records. Brent crude oil fell approximately 15.5%, averaging around $67/bbl with the IMF projecting a further decline to $62.4 in 2026. This is the widest gold-oil performance divergence in over a decade.

Did any fund bet on both gold and oil?

Elliott Investment Management holds significant positions on both sides: gold exposure through GDX and Triple Flag Precious Metals, and oil exposure through activist positions in Phillips 66 and Suncor Energy. Elliott’s approach is activist-driven (targeting operational improvements) rather than directional commodity bets. See our Elliott Q4 2025 deep dive for details.