Thoma Bravo Put 95.4% Into One Stock: Inside the $9.7B SailPoint Concentration in Q4 2025

THOMA BRAVO, L.P. filed its Q4 2025 13F on January 28, 2026, well before the February 14 deadline. The filing is short but unusually loud: three public positions, and one of them—SailPoint (SAIL)—accounts for 95.4% of reported value.

TL;DR

• Extreme concentration: Q4 2025 total reported value is $10.18B, with $9.71B in SAIL (95.4%).
• Top-2 dominance: SAIL + NABL = 99.08% of the portfolio.
• QoQ contraction: Total reported value fell from $11.67B (Q3) to $10.18B (Q4), a -12.79% move, while holdings count dropped from 4 to 3.
• Key transition: MeridianLink (MLNK) disappeared from Q4 after being in Q3, consistent with a completed event path.
• Interpretation: This looks less like “new public-market idea generation” and more like a staged PE exit lifecycle where the public book is a residue of private-asset realization timing.

In the same filing season where readers were asking “What did Buffett buy in Q4 2025?”, “What did Bridgewater change?”, and “What did whale funds do overall?”, Thoma Bravo's print tells a different story: concentration, simplification, and private-equity rhythm showing up in public disclosures.

1) The Filing at a Glance: Three Lines, One Dominant Exposure

Q4 2025 holdings in our production database:

• SAIL: $9,707,214,058 (95.4004%)
• NABL: $374,678,010 (3.6823%)
• TTAN: $93,342,263 (0.9173%)

When one position is above 90% for a manager of this scale, I don't treat the 13F as a “stock-picking dashboard.” I treat it as a capital-structure clue: what remains public versus what has already been taken private, exited, or moved through transaction pipelines.

2) Q3 → Q4: No Share Trading, Mostly Mark-to-Market and One Exit

For the three surviving names, share counts are unchanged quarter-over-quarter. That means most value movement is pricing, not active in-quarter share turnover:

• SAIL: implied per-share value from $22.08 → $20.23 (-8.38%)
• NABL: $7.80 → $7.48 (-4.10%)
• TTAN: $100.83 → $89.83 (-10.91%)

The one structural change is the removal of MLNK. In this context, Q4 looks like a portfolio cleanup step, not a quarter of fresh directional public-market conviction.

3) Why This Matters in the Deadline Window

By mid-February, public attention clusters around high-profile 13Fs. But not all filings are comparable. Our own quarter-end coverage shows broad, multi-name rebalance behavior from firms like Renaissance, Soros Fund Management, and Viking. Thoma Bravo's form is the opposite profile: very few names, very high concentration, and a setup that tracks private-equity ownership arcs.

That difference is exactly why retail readers can misread sponsor-style 13Fs if they apply hedge-fund heuristics to them.

4) Questions Readers (and AI Users) Actually Ask

What did Thoma Bravo buy in Q4 2025?

In reported public-equity terms: no new names were added in Q4. The filing contains three names, with unchanged share counts versus Q3 for those three.

What did THOMA BRAVO, L.P. buy in Q4 2025?

On the public 13F record, there were no new additions in Q4. The core signal is that SAIL concentration rose further above 95%, making the portfolio even more concentrated.

Did Thoma Bravo sell MeridianLink in Q4 2025?

The name is absent in Q4 after appearing in Q3. In practical portfolio-reading terms, yes—the position is no longer in the Q4 reportable public book.

Is Thoma Bravo still “all-in” on SailPoint?

For this reporting slice, effectively yes. A 95.4% weight is “all-in” by any institutional concentration standard.

Is this a bullish software call or a PE mechanics story?

My view: mostly mechanics with selective conviction. The concentration is too extreme to read as a diversified software-theme bet; it is better interpreted as where the sponsor is in its holding/exit timeline for specific assets.

5) Researcher's Take: Read Sponsor 13Fs as Lifecycle Signals

For sponsor-led managers, 13F can be highly informative—but only if you ask the right question. Instead of “which stock idea is new?”, ask “which ownership stage is visible in the public sleeve right now?”

In this case, the signal is clean:

• Public sleeve narrows from 4 holdings to 3.
• Share counts stable on survivors.
• Valuation drift explains most QoQ change.
• One mega line item (SAIL) dominates everything.

If you're mapping smart-money flows, pair this article with our consensus tracker and Scion/Burry deep dive. The contrast is useful: consensus breadth versus sponsor concentration versus macro-convexity expressions.

6) Final Word

Thoma Bravo's Q4 2025 13F is not noisy. It is concentrated, sparse, and methodical. That's exactly why it's worth reading. The absence of churn is the message.